Newsletter
Despite a broad economic gloom hitting the markets, India’s private consumption reached a record high in 2024, surpassing $2.1 trillion—nearly doubling over the past decade.
That rapid spending growth puts India on track to become the world’s third-largest consumer market by 2026, trailing only the U.S. and China.
What’s driving it: e-commerce and digital payments have made spending seamless, while rising incomes, a young population, and urban expansion continue to fuel demand.
Over the last decade, consumer preferences have shifted toward higher-quality brands, experience-driven retail, and personalized products and services—further catalyzing growth
Key numbers to put on your radar:
- India’s organized retail market is expanding at a 10% CAGR, projected to reach $230 billion by 2030.
- Credit card adoption is set to triple from 102 million in 2024 to 296 million by 2030.
- The number of Indians earning $10,000 annually is expected to grow from 60 million to 165 million by 2030.
Big Picture: many investors see India’s economy as fundamentally driven by consumer spending. With robust expansion in consumption, earnings growth could accelerate, potentially lifting the stock market out of its current rut.
And while we’re on the topic of growth, ☝️
India’s Q3 (Oct to Dec) GDP grew 6.2%, a notch below expectations but better than last quarter.
Consumer and government spending kept the economy moving, but it was clear that growth isn’t as fast as it was last year. On a yearly basis, GDP has slowed from nearly 8.6% YoY growth.
On the positive side though, rural demand is seen reviving. Agriculture growth, at 4.6% YoY, was better than last year. Sectors like construction are holding steady. And the government’s heavy spending on infrastructure is also helping hold the line.
