Filter Coffee - Trump locks $600B Saudi deal 💰

Tata Motors strong Q4, India's steel tariffs, and more layoffs.

🗓 Morning, folks!

Market exuberance got a reality check on Tuesday, with both major indices stepping back after a post war run up. The Nifty 50 dropped 1.39% and the Sensex plunged 1.55%

The pause is generally healthy. Lots of factors are re-aligning for India. Inflation is coming down, RBI could cut rates, and the success of homegrown defense solutions is likely to catalyze significant industrial activity. Hard to argue that the markets won’t end the year higher.

💡 Spotlight: the Trump administration signed an executive order pushing drugmakers to voluntarily lower their prices or face regulatory action. The goal is to let U.S. patients buy medicines at “Most-Favoured-Nation” prices, meaning the lowest price these drugs are sold for in other developed countries.

The order is meant to bring U.S. drug prices in line with global norms, but for now, it’s more of a warning shot than a crackdown.

For Indian pharma companies, the immediate impact looks limited. However, if U.S. regulators begin to tighten pricing norms across the board or enforce similar price caps on generics Indian firms could start to feel the squeeze down the value chain.

Let’s hit it!

1 Big Thing: Inflation falls again, food prices take the lead 📉

India’s retail inflation cooled to 3.16% in April, down from 3.34% in March—its lowest level in six years.

That marks six straight months of easing, putting it comfortably below the RBI’s 4% comfort zone.

Why it matters: a lower CPI generally means prices of goods are coming down. This could be because demand is weak or things are generally less expensive. This gives RBI some leeway to cut rates, in order to stimulate the economy and drive demand up. Its a setup that investors tend to love

CPI, or Consumer Price Index, tracks the change in prices of everyday goods and services. It’s a key measure of inflation that reflects how much the cost of living is rising, or falling, for the average consumer.

Once again, food did the heavy lifting.

Food inflation fell to 1.78%, its lowest since October 2021, down from 2.69% in March.
Vegetable prices plunged to -10.98% from -7.04% in March.
Pulses slipped further into deflation at -5.23%, vs -2.73% in March.

Meanwhile, core inflation (excluding food and fuel) stayed sticky, thanks to rising gold prices driven by global tensions—gold hit a record $3,498.24 on April 22.

With inflation at its softest in nearly 5 years, the RBI has a wide runway to cut rates or keep them low, without the fear of runaway prices. That means good news for borrowers and more fuel for growth.

2. Trump secures $600 billion deal with Saudi Arabia 💰

President Trump just landed what he’s calling a “historic and transformative” $600 billion package of commercial agreements with Saudi Arabia, marking one of the largest U.S.-Saudi investment deals ever signed.

What’s on the table:

$20B from Saudi-backed DataVolt to build U.S.-based AI data centers and energy infrastructure
$80B in joint tech investments from firms like Google, Oracle, Salesforce, AMD, and Uber
$2B in U.S. engineering and services exports tied to mega projects like King Salman International Airport
$14.2B in energy exports from GE Vernova
$4.8B for Boeing 737 aircraft
$5.8B in healthcare, including a new IV fluid plant in Michigan

The headline deal: a $142B defense agreement, the largest ever, covering everything from missile defense and air force upgrades to maritime security and battlefield training, with over a dozen U.S. firms involved.

Why it matters: Saudi Arabia is already one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners in the Middle East. With this deal, Trump is deepening a partnership that touches tech, energy, infrastructure, defense, and diplomacy.

Zoom out: this announcement comes just days after a U.S.–UK trade agreement, capping off a big foreign policy win streak for Trump.

3. India prepares to hit back at U.S. over steel tariffs

India is preparing to slap retaliatory duties on select U.S. products—hitting back at American tariffs on Indian steel and aluminium that have been in place since 2018.

The background: The U.S. has been charging 25% on Indian steel and 10% on aluminium, calling them “national security” measures rather than safeguard tariffs. That label helps the U.S. dodge WTO rules that typically limit safeguard tariffs—and delay retaliation.

India’s position? Enough’s enough. The tariffs have now been extended again from March 2025—this time, with no sunset clause.

What’s next: India has formally notified the WTO that it intends to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. The U.S. tariffs have impacted $7.6 billion worth of Indian exports, and India’s countermeasures could raise $1.91 billion from U.S. products entering the country.

Zoom out: this isn’t just about steel. It’s also about leverage. The announcement comes just as India and the U.S. are deep in talks over a new bilateral trade deal, with Indian negotiators currently in Washington.

3. Major earnings in focus 💰

Tata Motors clocked in a stronger-than-expected Q4, powered by its luxury play. Net profit came in at ₹8,470 crore, beating analyst estimates of ₹7,458 crore.

What’s driving it: Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which makes up two-thirds of Tata Motors’ revenue, delivered the goods. SUV demand stayed strong in North America and Europe, helping offset weaker sales in China and slowing growth back home.

JLR’s margins held up too—10.7% for the quarter, helping it meet its full-year target of 8.5%.

Overall revenue was up just 0.4% YoY to ₹1.2 trillion, but that’s with expenses dropping 2%, thanks to easing raw material costs.

The stock closed down 1.8% ahead of results.

While JLR is holding up, domestic passenger vehicle sales are starting to lose steam after years of strong growth.

Tata Motors sold fewer units in FY25 than in FY24, hinting at a potential plateau in the home market.

While we are on earnings,

Hero MotoCorp ended FY25 on a high, clocking its highest-ever annual revenue and profit.

By the numbers: net profit rose 6% YoY to ₹4,610 crore, while revenue hit ₹40,756 crore, up 4%. In Q4, profit stood at ₹1,081 crore and revenue at ₹9,939 crore.

What’s driving it: price hikes and a push toward premium models like the Xtreme 125R helped offset weak rural demand. Domestic two-wheeler sales rose just 1.4%, hit by tight financing and sluggish rural liquidity.

4. Stocks that kept us interested 🚀

1. Cochin & Dubai join forces for ship repair boost 🛳️

Cochin Shipyard gained 3% after it teamed up with Dubai's Drydocks World to boost India’s capabilities in shipbuilding and large marine structure repairs.

The collaboration aims to bring global expertise to Indian ports and shipyards—focusing on both building and repairing vessels, and enhancing large-scale marine infrastructure.

Why it matters: India’s location on key global shipping lanes gives it a natural edge in maritime services. This deal could help modernize the country’s ship repair ecosystem and turn it into a competitive global hub.

Zoom out: despite the potential, India currently holds less than 1% of the global ship repair market. This partnership could be a step toward changing that.

2. Power Mech builds big

Power Mech rose 2% after winning a ₹972 crore order for the 5x800 MW Yadadri Thermal Power Project in Telangana.

Power Mech Projects is an infrastructure and engineering company that builds and maintains power plants and large industrial projects across India.

The 5x800 MW Yadadri Thermal Power Project has a total capacity of 4,000 MW which is enough electricity to power around 30–35 lakh Indian homes, depending on usage.

It’s one of the largest thermal power projects in South India, designed to meet the rising power demand in Telangana and nearby states.

The deets: the company will handle everything from soil checks to design and construction of a massive integrated township.

What else are we snackin’ 🍿

💰 Bank beats tech: ICICI Bank has overtaken TCS in net profit, crossing ₹50,000 crore for the first time in FY25.

💸 Profit league: SBI now ranks among the world’s most profitable companies alongside Apple, Alphabet, and JPMorgan with a $9.2 billion profit in FY25.

📱 UPI rankings: PhonePe stayed on top, Google Pay held second, and Paytm followed third in April’s UPI leaderboard by both volume and value.

💼 MSFT cuts: Microsoft is laying off around 6,000 employees—roughly 3% of its global workforce—as part of its ongoing restructuring efforts.

That’s a wrap! Don’t let the weekday blues get to you.

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